The politics of housing

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think positive
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Post by think positive »

stui magpie wrote:^

There's a bit in that. I was renting my house for $100 a week in the late 80's. I got first offer when the owner decided to sell and even though it only cost $100k, that doubled my payments to $200 a week.

I relied on that I had a good job and my earning capacity was only going to increase as I got older, so suck it up and go without nice things for a few years.

What people pay to rent a house in the Melbourne suburbs these days, the same repayments could just about pay off a $400k mortgage.

The myth is that our generation had it easy because housing prices were low. We still had to work and save and go without to get there though. Life is about choices, you can't have everything.
truth! and 18 percent interest!

yes it would skid, you just have to look hard and maybe not where you want!
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Post by pietillidie »

Skids wrote:It depends how hard someone WANTS to work. We have a young bloke here. He works in the store and his salary is around $120k. On his time off, he drives an Uber and earns another $100k a year doing that.
Is the store on-site, FIFO, and is his Uber run also a FIFO gig? How many hours a week is he working? Where are these houses? Does he have kids? Did he leverage the bank of mum and dad? Do you know how many hours he'd have to drive to earn that minus operating costs?

Remember, as said above 90% of the population can't move to Dimboola, just as 90% of the population can't head to South Korea like I did. That's my way of saying that the economic geography is as it is, even if a handful of people like myself head to South Korea, live underground and dig for opals, or whatever. Exceptions do not a country make, while if everyone drove Ubers to the Woomera Rocket Range or wherever that too would revert to the mean. You've got to reference mainstream data, not stories about data.

Just because economists ask these questions doesn't mean they think working hard isn't important. That goes without saying. But you can't just quote a bloke from work and dismiss actual field professionals who have the data in black and white. This is exactly what happened with global warming, remember? Thinking it might cost them or detract from their self-perceived exceptionalism, people allowed the unqualified to howl down reality, with that delay now set to cost trillions of dollars in drought, fire and flood relief.
stui magpie wrote:The myth is that our generation had it easy because housing prices were low. We still had to work and save and go without to get there though. Life is about choices, you can't have everything.
There's no myth whatsoever about housing being far more affordable in the past. Also, it's no just about far lower housing prices: real wages were far higher, government support was higher, government-subsidised services cheaper, educational requirements lower, and plenty of space such that the outer suburbs weren't that far out by today's standards.

The numbers aren't even controversial; we know exactly what everything cost when, and what everyone earned when, what everyone could save when, how much extra work people could do when, and what the interest rate differential meant in real terms to the cent.

Virtually everyone always thinks they work harder than everyone else, just as they always think the past was better. We're smart enough and dignified enough not to fall for that card trick, surely.

I for one can't countenance doing that to the young and strugglers even though I'm fine; there's a clear element of responsibility about it. Advanced society was clearly heavily built on a foundation of affordable housing, and the free kick accompanying it.

There's nothing wrong with scepticism, but people actually have to put the work in to confirm or deny the known facts, not just cling to whatever nonsense benefits them or makes them feel more entitled than others.

Sometimes, it's not possible to square the circle for a win-win, but that's the task, surely. That's why, for example, I mentioned the idea of forcing sub-division, density and height after people leave their homes or transfer ownership, so density happens over time and everyone's prepared for it, but it doesn't impact people until they move. And so on.

Remember that idiot Abbott and the hordes of Facebook dimwits scuppering climate action and the green energy transition? Those people cost the country trillions of dollars over the coming decades, and won't pay a dime for it. Watching this again and again with the same kinds of mistakes on repeat is not my idea of a good time, that's for sure.

Anyhow, that's the end of the topic for me, so don't worry I'll leave you in peace on the matter.
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Post by Skids »

The store is the warehouse on-site. He does the same roster as me 8 days on 6 days off. He drives the Uber every day of his R & R, between 6 & 10hrs a day, he enjoys driving so does whatever he feels like.
After expenses... I quizzed him today and he said he makes roughly $2k/week less $200 for fuel plus other typical car running expenses.

1 house is in a burb called Beechboro (rental), the other is in Marrangaroo.
Both are 'middle class' areas within 15km of the CBD.

He's a 25 yo immigrant from Sudan, been in Australia 6 years, along with his parents and 7 siblings. He's full on Muslim and prays here with his little mat multiple times daily.... most mine sites have prayer rooms for all religions.

Interesting ABC article today.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-22/ ... /103733692
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Post by stui magpie »

https://www.theage.com.au/national/left ... 5jmbj.html

Enough houses sitting unused (not holiday homes) to make a serious dent in the housing crisis.

If you just go squat in an empty house that's been "banked" by a Chinese investor, can you get the utilities turned on or do you have to have proof of rental? I haven't rented in over 30 years so have NFI how it works these days.
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Re: The politics of housing

Post by think positive »

We have started looking for junior, she has a good deposit, gees anything built by spec builders in the last maybe 8-10 years is trash. Just like truck and taxi drivers with overseas licensing and training, I can’t believe these places pass inspections, it’s a disgrace. My sister in laws place had bricks that hung over the slab, apparently it’s ok if it’s within a margin, that’s crazy. We picked so many faults we found an independent inspector, a lot got fixed but a lot didn’t. Little things like centring a window and having equal fill each side.

With power bills spiralling and resources diminishing, the standards need not just to be adhered to but raised.

Saw a show about passive builds, so interesting. Triple glazing, air locked outer walls, increased insulation, genius.
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Re: The politics of housing

Post by stui magpie »

Housing politics is going nuts at the moment.
Vic Labor want to build 20 story apartment buildings near railway stations. Nice for developers and the CFMEU, not sure if it's the solution, depends how much they rent for. Putting high density housing next to public transport hubs is reasonably smart as you usually have other amenities close by, so on one hand it makes some sense.

Dutton is focused on breaking through on new greenfield sites by offering money to pay for the infrastructure which inevitably always delays builds. A developer could have 50 acres of land cleared, levelled and ready to build on, but they can't until the Power, water, sewage and NBN are laid in the ground. That, as much as a shortage of materials and builders, is the biggest delay.

Having said that, I agree with @think positive in that the build quality of these new stamp built houses is shit and has been for years. They're destined for the bulldozer in 25 years if they last that long.
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down.
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Re: The politics of housing

Post by think positive »

they should visit japan before putting up the high rises! ugh, no thanks!!

and its not all sparkling buildings, there were towns we went through, lots of them, that wouldnt be out of place in the bood docks of the states, or springvale! unloved, uncared for.
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Re: The politics of housing

Post by SLORT »

This is what a mismanaged economy looks like. First close all the tech schools. Then insist everyone needs to complete year 12 and go on to "higher education". Then when you don't have "enough workers" willing to work for peanuts you open the floodgates of immigration. Not because you care, just because it's easier than reinvesting in your own people.

When you break it down the current system has the all the insight and wisdom of a cancer cell. Build to house the workers we need in order to build the houses we need in order to house the workers we need in order to build the houses...a seriously bad piece of coding. And the scary thing is that the entire political system has been railroaded in to accepting this so that you cannot even vote it out of office. Unfortunately there are no more "family jewels" (C'wealth bank, Qantas, Telstra, GIO / SIO, etc) to sell off for the sugar hit of "investors". Housing (ie land) is the only real speculative market left. Oh wait...AI is coming to save us...
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Post by SLORT »

stui magpie wrote: Sun Apr 21, 2024 5:02 pm The myth is that our generation had it easy because housing prices were low. We still had to work and save and go without to get there though. Life is about choices, you can't have everything.
This from the Google ~
"In 1980, the median house price in Melbourne was around 2.9 times the average wage, which was considered high at the time:

Median house price: In 1980, the median house price in Melbourne was $39,500.
Average wage: In 1980, the average wage was $13,458.

In the decades since, house prices have increased much faster than wages:

2021: The median house price in Sydney was 14 times the average income, and in Melbourne it was 21.9 times higher.

2022: House values in capital cities had risen 453% in the 30 years to 2022.
40 years: The average house price has increased by 14 times, whereas full-time salaries have only increased by 4.7 times."

So yeah, free education, better hospitals, cheaper / higher quality food, cheaper land and quality housing (courtesy of the state owned bank), free freeways, I'm sure I've missed a few. That generation did have it easier. And they've sold it all off for some fool's gold (a.k.a. shares). Sorry boomers, but you can't play moral high-ground here. You've had your cake...now you can enjoy the returns out the other end. Not sure you'd want to eat them though.
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Re: The politics of housing

Post by stui magpie »

Careful who you call Boomer or I'll go outside and shake my fist at a cloud.

We definitely had it easier, but it wasn't easy.

Back then you largely had to rely on one income. Now, with more women in high paid employment, paid parental leave, right to return part time, heavily subsidised childcare, it's easier to have 2 incomes to pay a mortgage. Plus income tax rates are comparitively far lower than they were then.

And yes, while the median house price is high, the median in somewhere like Kalkallo is $570k, in Point Cook it's $680.

The other thing that causes issues is the modern generation have higher expectations, want all the latest toys, and there's many more options to have discretionry spending like streaming services and food delivery.
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down.
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