Trade Targets ~ Free Agency & MSD player discussion

[SLORT]

According to Gettable, we're still up to our guts in Houston.

Sounds a bit...icky.

As to trading out Joe Richards, Noble, #33, and next year's first for a half back flanker...yeah nah.

[Jen2310]

Can cross out Hobbs and Stringer according to cal

https://x.com/1116sen/status/1836551182757826760

[Magpie Russ]

Richards to Port for pick#37
Noble to Suns with pick #37 (received from Port) for their pick #12.
Future 1st & pick#33 to Port for Houston. (If it was this year, it would be 1395+563 = equivalent 1958 points = top 10 points value)
Leaving us with Houston and Pick #12 (1268 points) for the draft.

I like the scenario...

Port:
In: Lukosius + Richards + CFC Future 1st + Pick #33
Out: Pick #37 + Houston

CFC:
In: Houston + Pick #12
Out: Noble + Richard + Pick #33 + Future 1st

GC:
In: Port's Pick #? + Noble + Pick #37
Out: Lukosius + Pick #12

Have I got that right?

Who wins this deal? I think GC needs a sweetener.

[Take_a_Screamer]

^^ Houston, do we have a lift-off?
The three-club trade that could unlock Houston's move to Victoria. By Martin Smith

AFL.com.au's trade and draft expert Cal Twomey says the Dockers' pursuit of

• Liam Baker and Shai Bolton this year and

• Chad Warner in 2025

are all factors in a possible three-way deal that could see Houston land at Arden St.
However note, Magpies are still in the mix with a trade involving John Noble...
It would be a small step for Houston but a giant step for Collingwood :>)

Chase for Dan Houston, including how the Magpies, Bulldogs and Blues could get the deal done
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1223163/the ... o-victoria

Gettable:
https://www.afl.com.au/video/1223078/ge ... 6619191001

[LaurieHolden]

Have I got that right?
Who wins this deal? I think GC needs a sweetener.

@Magpie Russ Maybe Suns only table pick #20, then it gets complicated. They could sweeten it with some late picks however they need to protect their points bank required for any external GCS academy pick bids.
Gold Coast picks 6, 12, 20, 26, 35, 46, 71, 80 total 5542

[piffdog]

I like the scenario - if we could end up with Houston AND pick 12 this year, losing Noble, Richards and our future first then (I think taken in the context of getting a FS next year etc) that would be a good deal IMO.

It’s invariably a 100:1 shot to happen just like that, but we should be chuffed if it does.

Add a free agent and away we go! Honouring an all-in tilt in 2025 but also chipping away at the medium term too.

[LaurieHolden]

@piffdog 100/1 you're being generous... while I don't think I've given unders of sorts to anyone in that scenario, the likelihood of this playing out is remote at best.
Surely someone trumps a bid for Houston.
All depends how good our pitch is to Houston to ensure we get all parties onto the conference call. Surely, he knows how toxic the Blouse will be next year after they get bundled out of the finals once again...and who's going to St.Kilda?!

[SLORT]

Shouldn't we instead be getting some draft capital ready for the following year as this will be when we have a cash windfall from our veterans retiring? Landing a big fish (or two) in areas we are showing a deficiency seems to me a better option than aiming for an outside defensive flanker. I mean would you prefer Chad Warner or Houston?

I'd rather see Parker and TJ (or even Ryan or Demattia) being given game time in our defensive half than bringing in Houston. I mean out of our current 4 medium starting defenders who does he replace? IQ, Maynard, Crisp, Howe / Pendlebury? Yeah, I just don't see the need.

[LaurieHolden]

^You don't pass on dual AA defenders on hope. Create certainty.

[Charlie Oneeye]

I mean out of our current 4 medium starting defenders who does he replace? IQ, Maynard, Crisp, Howe / Pendlebury? Yeah, I just don't see the need.

I agree with all you said, I think we can live without him.

But I am always wary of the logic, which reminds me of 'But we have Richardson, we don't need Lockett'. lol

[WhyPhilWhy?]

I mean out of our current 4 medium starting defenders who does he replace? IQ, Maynard, Crisp, Howe / Pendlebury? Yeah, I just don't see the need.

He perhaps releases IQ to the wing.

[piffdog]

^not sure I saw any evidence of IQ being a winger after a couple trials in that position during the year.

The challenge with "getting some draft capital ready for the following year" is that we will most likely be taking McGuane. If we happen to be sitting on a pick #10, that will probably go towards getting him to the club. I dont see that we can focus on retaining top picks for next year when rival clubs will be able to bid him early and force our hand. To my knowledge, if we held something like #10, #20, #35, #50 and he gets bid at #10 - we cant say "we'll have him, but here take our pick #20 and #35 to match the points..." We would have to use our pick #10. We could of course have traded away pick #10 in a deal beforehand I suppose.

I would rather have Houston now than draft a lanky KPF who takes 5 years to get a regular game. Look at Charlie Curnow - drafted in 2016 and did stuff all until 2022. As for Houston, he takes the role that Noble will be vacating (remember Noble played 20 games in 2024). Houston can play smaller in 2025, and then come 2026, he is the obvious replacement for Howe. Secondly, any structure that gives Crisp more time in the midfield would be valuable. Lastly, if you and I are watching the same game, half back flank distributors are just about the most dangerous players in the game. How about Nick in 2022? How about Nick Blakey? How about Dane Zorko this year?? I think this is a rols y ou should absolutely invest in.

Its funny how people want to go to the draft "for the future"... Well you know when we draft 25-27 year old players they will contribute to our future as well right?? Guys like Houston, McStay and Schultz for example will have a guaranteed contribution for 5 years, starting immediately.

[SLORT]

Its funny how people want to go to the draft "for the future"... Well you know when we draft 25-27 year old players they will contribute to our future as well right??

At no point was I suggesting going to the draft for raw talent. My point was ensuring we have draft capital to trade in a gun/s coinciding with salary cap space provided by the retiring veterans.

And yes, I agree the age of the distributing, high efficiency half-back flanker is upon us. J.Daicos even was put in that role once or twice this year. However we've also seen teams more willing to counteract their impact by playing run-with / tags upon them (Zorko, Stewart, etc). And in the end I just don't think that this is the area that we are glaringly weak in at the moment.

As an alternative, say we could get Sam De Koning and it'd cost us half what would be required to land Houston? Mobile, young tall defender with rucking potential sounds more like what we'd need for next year. No way Carlton is getting both Houston and De Koning and keeping their #11 draft pick.

Don't get me wrong Houston's a great player and would be a good get. I just think there may be better value to be had elsewhere.

[Pies2016]

It’s an interesting conversation. The proven quality for the now vs the punt on the draft for a 10 year, 200+ game talent.
I’ve seen multiple lists and analysis showing how early picks don’t guarantee you any sort of security but i haven’t seen any lists evaluating the success or not of those big names who change clubs. For every big name who changes a club and plays in a flag, there’s possibly two who doesn’t.
I’d suggest the hit rate of the top ten in a draft probably isn’t that different to an A GRADER swapping clubs and playing in a flag.
So let’s not forget, while a mature age player may stroll into your best 23, there is also nothing tangible that suggests one player makes a significant difference between a flag or not.
Footy is the ultimate team game, so it’s also not a game that lends itself to one individual making a significant difference to a clubs fortunes.
I’m not knocking any trade for a quality player but I’d suggest history shows, that route doesn’t guarantee an improved ladder position either.

Generally a club knows where they’re at in terms of their list profile management. There’s usually a natural evolution that declares itself as the seasons roll on.
For Collingwood to find themselves in a position where both list management directions could be easily justified, is a bit unique in itself.

I’m really looking forward to see how we trade / draft in the off season. Does the club go all in for the now, does it have a bob each way or do we invest more heavily in the draft than most would think.
It will be a fascinating watch.

[piffdog]

I will also add that you will never get a 200 game key position player in the draft if you dont draft them to begin with so you do have to be in it to win it.

I would like us to get Houston.

All good discussion.