Finals qualification

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

Only win is v tigers.
I think we will win v Dees r24 but it will be too late.

[Johnno75]

LOL time to close this down, we will struggle to get to 52 points. On our current form (last 6 weeks), we beat the tigers and that’s it.

[shawthing]

Yes Richmond and possible Melbourne are the only two wins coming. But even if we won four of the last six we'd still require teams in the eight to start losing. That's not going to happen.

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

Think win tigers and dees and thats all folks for 2024.
Lose to Hawks and its done completely.
Nothing much in 2024 anymore if we lose to Hawks,

[David]

Yes Richmond and possible Melbourne are the only two wins coming. But even if we won four of the last six we'd still require teams in the eight to start losing. That's not going to happen.

Four out of six should be enough to get us there, and even three might still if things fall our way (percentage will be important too). Here’s an updated ladder predictor:

1. Sydney 76 137%
2. Carlton 68 117%
3. Geelong 64 112%
4. Brisbane 62 119%
5. Fremantle 62 114%
6. Essendon 54 99%
7. GWS 52 107%
8. Collingwood 52 104%

9. Western Bulldogs 48 111%
10. Melbourne 48 102%
11. Port Adelaide 48 100%
12. Gold Coast 44 102%
13. Hawthorn 44 95%
14. Adelaide 34 101%
15. St Kilda 32 92%
16. West Coast 16 74%
17. North Melbourne 16 71%
18. Richmond 8 68%

At this stage, any of Essendon, GWS, Bulldogs, Melbourne or Port losing is good for us. It’s also quite possible that, if we’re still alive by then, the Melbourne game will be sudden death for both teams.

[derkd]

To be honest in current form, you can't point at any game as a possoble win. Our backline is leaking scores, our midfeild is getting belted.

I would be intrested to see where we are on form ladder. I would imagine we are bottom four (that is obviously not where we will end up).

But let us be honest, if we were playing Adeliade or North Melbourne or West Coast... I would be very nervious of the result... and I would argue we would be more likely to lose the game.


Hence, I would argue we are on form a bottom 4 side.

[Jen2310]

4 might.
But also, 4 more night be enough depending on other results. Ive done the ladder predictor a few times and I think 9-10th is gonna be more likely.
Just because its a logjam around the 8

But who knows.

[David]

Essendon losing tonight was a good result for us – I reckon they’re now headed for 12.5 rather than 13.5 wins (i.e. winning two of their last five), which increases the chance that 52 points will be enough for us if we can get there.

[What'sinaname]

^ we'll do well to get to 40 points.

[Big T]

Watch Dusty turn the clock back this week and tear our unaccountable defence a new arsehole

[Johnno75]

Well we were the only team that made North look like a top 4 team (and let them get 9 goals ahead) for almost 3 qtrs.

Won’t be surprised if we make Richmond look like a powerhouse again.

[Jezza]

8 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses (36 points)

OR - GWS (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R1 - Sydney (H) = LOSS (0 points)
R2 - St Kilda (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R3 - Brisbane Lions (A) = WON (4 points)
R4 - Hawthorn (N) = WON (8 points)
R6 - Port Adelaide (H) = WON (12 points)
R7 - Essendon (A) = DRAW (14 points)
R8 - Carlton (A) = WON (18 points)
R9 - West Coast (H) = WON (22 points)
R10 - Adelaide (H) = WON (26 points)
R11 - Fremantle (A) = DRAW (28 points)
R12 - Western Bulldogs (H) = LOSS (28 points)
R13 - Melbourne (H) = WON (32 points)
R14 - North Melbourne (A) = WON (36 points)
R16 - Gold Coast (A) = LOSS (36 points)
R17 - Essendon (H) = LOSS (36 points)
R18 - Geelong (H) = LOSS (36 points)
R19 - Hawthorn (A) = LOSS (36 points)

R20 - Richmond (H)
R21 - Carlton (H)
R22 - Sydney (A)
R23 - Brisbane Lions (H)
R24 - Melbourne (A)

We would need to win all 5 matches to get to 14 wins (56 points). We've fallen well short of the target.

[David]

For those who still dare to dream – or who may be able to start considering it again if we can beat Richmond tomorrow and get some form back in the process – I will say that this weekend’s results, with Essendon, Gold Coast and Melbourne all losing games they might have been expected to win, have so far been very good for us.

Fair chance Bulldogs and Hawks both lose tomorrow too and leave us just two points out of the eight tomorrow night. We’d still need at the very least two and more likely three wins from our last four games to play finals, but it’d be nice to approach the last few matches with the feeling we’re playing for something if nothing else.

[Johnno75]

Looking more like the MCG is gonna be pretty empty this September. I expect the top 4 will all be interstate teams.

[RudeBoy]

We can beat Richmond, Carlton and Melbourne. We'd likely lose to the Swans in Sydney, but if we can regain some form and confidence by then, I'd still back us to beat the Lions at the 'G'. That would give us 52 pts and most likely enough to make the 8. Do that, and we could "do a Bulldogs" and win the phucking flag from 8th spot.