Finals qualification

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The Black and White Lion
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Post by The Black and White Lion »

Alright so we’ve snuck up to 6.5wins and 26points. Almost halfway. Only 8wins to go!

Another pivotal 8point win against the crows. Freo Dogs and Dees on the menu. Will need to inject another 2 players this week with WHE and McInnes out.
Ed Allen kicked our last goal of the year at the 58minute mark
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LaurieHolden
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Post by LaurieHolden »

After 6 games of round 10, 2024, according to the latest from Wheelo Ratings simulations, we're a 29.4% chance for the Top4 and 65.6% for the Top8.

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html
"The Club's not Jock, Ted and Gerry" (& Eddie)
2023 AFL Premiers
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Pies4shaw
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Post by Pies4shaw »

We're a game and a half ahead of where we were after 10 games in 2022 (5 and 5), a game ahead of where we were in 2020 (5.5/5) and half a game ahead of where we were in 2018.

So, the weekly question - "Which is the only team in the AFL that is undefeated in its last 7 games?"
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Johnno75
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Post by Johnno75 »

Almost a perfect weekend of results for us, if only the Hawks knew how to hang on to the ball for 40 seconds. WCE will be extremely hard to beat at home. Lions, Suns and Carlton still need to face them over there.
Human behavioural studies suggest people who use a lot of swear words tend to be more honest & trustworthy.
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BazBoy
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Post by BazBoy »

I'm not arguing--just explaining why i am right
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K
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Post by K »

David wrote:It's certainly not outside the realm of possibility if we get into gear. Geelong started 2-3 in 2007 and ended up winning all but one of their remaining games and finishing minor premiers. Obviously top 4 is a more attainable goal though.
After R10, the Squiggle models reckon Collingwood's chances are:
5% for 1st
39% for top 4
74% for top 8.

For 1st, they reckon it's:
Sydney 67%
Geebung 8%
Port 6%
Ess 4%
Melb 3%
...
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David
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Post by David »

At this stage I’m happy for Sydney to get 1st, and they probably will unless things go seriously wrong for them in the second half of the year.
2nd is a pretty decent prize in its own right, and that race is wide open at the moment.
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
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Jezza
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Post by Jezza »

28 points (the equivalent of 7 wins), so we’re halfway there. Percentage matters again.
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piedys
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Post by piedys »

And the last time maggot interference has presented us two draws in one season was way back when?
M I L L A N E 4 2 forever
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Johnno75
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Post by Johnno75 »

Errr 2010?
Human behavioural studies suggest people who use a lot of swear words tend to be more honest & trustworthy.
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piedys
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Post by piedys »

Johnno75 wrote:Errr 2010?
Oh yeah; the Melbourne game.... prior to GF1....
M I L L A N E 4 2 forever
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The Black and White Lion
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Post by The Black and White Lion »

Well at least we're half way there on points before the half way mark of the season.
Fitness and form have been the main story for the first half of the season. Seems that story is not going to go away during the next 5 or 6 weeks either.
Ed Allen kicked our last goal of the year at the 58minute mark
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Johnno75
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Post by Johnno75 »

It’s pretty jam packed aside from Sydney so 15 could get you top 4.
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David
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Post by David »

Can definitely edit the title of this thread to say 13 now, I reckon. In fact, with two draws, 12 wins could well be enough.
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
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Magpie Russ
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Post by Magpie Russ »

12 games to go. We can afford to lose maybe 4 of 12 games to make Top 4.
We can afford to lose 6 of 12 and make Top 8.

DOGS, MELB, NORTH, BYE
5 weeks before Round 16 vs GC

We will have a better list by Round 16.
IF…
Bite the bullet give players till after the bye to get fit and risk losing 2 out of next 3 games.
THEN…
We will need to win 7 of the last 9 to make Top 4.
We will need to win 5 of the last 9 to make Top 8.
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