Top 4 predictions (betting thread)

[Skids]

"... when you gamble often, the same chemical gets released when you get a near miss. Essentially, your brain gets tricked into thinking you've won and this encourages you to keep going..."

Maybe for some people, not for everyone though.

If you have an addictive personality, maybe.

I have always set budgets for punting and keep a track on how I'm travelling. I'm almost $10k up this year. For me, it's a bit of fun and gives a bit more 'life' to sports events.
I had no trouble giving up cigarettes almost 15 years ago and giving up drinking 2 years ago was the easiest thing I've ever done.

I've tried almost every drug you can get your hands on (not H) but never been addicted to any.
I have been a pot smoker for 40 years, the last 20 years I've been working FIFO, so have to pass random drug tests. I know when I have to stop so that there is no issue.

I must say though, since quitting alcohol, I never do the impulsive betting that would sometimes creep into my punting.


Traits of People with High Risk of Developing Addiction

Nevertheless, there are traits that can be recognized in people who have a higher risk of becoming addicted to psychoactive substances rather than just being able to moderate behaviour around these types of substances. People with this higher addiction risk include those who are:

Related to others who have developed addiction
Experiencing other mental health disorders
Adventurous and risk-taking
Disconnected and cautious
Obsessive and compulsive
Apathetic
Unable to self-regulate

https://americanaddictioncenters.org/th ... ersonality

[K]

...
I have always set budgets for punting and keep a track on how I'm travelling. I'm almost $10k up this year.
...

That's great!

What ROI does that come out to? Are your winnings mainly from sport or from racing?

[K]

[K]

2022, just before R1 kicks off...


sb To Make the Top 8

Melbourne 1.11
Brisbane, WB 1.22
Port 1.33
Geelong 1.36
Richmond, Sydney 1.45
GWS 2.00
Essendon 2.25
Fremantle 2.50
St K 2.63
Carlton 2.88
WC 4.00
Collingwood 5.50
Adelaide, Hawthorn 6.00
GC, North 8.00

...................................

sb To Make the Top 4

Melbourne 1.62
Brisbane, WB 1.83
Port 2.10
Geelong 2.75
Richmond, Sydney 3.00
GWS 4.50
Essendon 5.50
Fremantle 6.50
St K 7.00
Carlton 9.00
WC Collingwood 15.00
Adelaide, Hawthorn 18.00
GC, North 26.00

[K]

sb To Make the Top 8

Melbourne 1.04
Brisbane 1.17
Geelong 1.28
WB 1.33
Sydney 1.36
Port 1.45
Richmond 1.80
Carlton 2.00
GWS 2.10
Fremantle 2.20
Essendon 2.50
St K 3.30
Collingwood 3.75
WC, Hawthorn 4.50
GC 6.50
Adelaide 8.50
North 13.00

...................................

sb To Make the Top 4

Melbourne 1.36
Brisbane 1.67
Geelong 2.10
WB 2.25
Port, Sydney 2.63
Richmond 4.00
GWS, Carlton 5.50
Essendon, Fremantle 6.00
Collingwood 10.00
St K 11.00
WC, Hawthorn 15.00
GC 26.00
Adelaide 31.00
North 41.00

[K]

sb To Make the Top 8

Melbourne 1.03
Brisbane 1.11
Sydney 1.22
Geelong 1.30
WB 1.53
Carlton 1.62
Richmond 1.72
Port 1.80
GWS 2.30
Fremantle, St K 2.88
Collingwood 3.00
Essendon 3.10
Hawthorn 3.20
WC 6.00
GC 6.50
Adelaide, North 11.00

...................................

sb To Make the Top 4

Melbourne 1.28
Brisbane 1.57
Sydney 2.00
Geelong 2.37
WB 2.88
Carlton, Richmond 3.40
Port 3.75
GWS 7.00
Collingwood, St K 8.50
Hawthorn 9.50
Essendon, Fremantle 10.00
WC 17.00
GC 34.00
Adelaide, North 51.00

[What'sinaname]

After 2 and a bit rounds, we could be looking at a Melbourne / Carlton GF

[Jezza]

After 2 and a bit rounds, we could be looking at a Melbourne / Carlton GF

At this stage, I think Melbourne and Brisbane are the benchmark clubs.

[Lazza]

After 2 and a bit rounds, we could be looking at a Melbourne / Carlton GF

Carlscum might improve but no way known they’d make the Granny in 2022.

[Pies4shaw]

I'd love to see Carlton in the Grand Final. I reckon they could do a 2007 Port Adelaide for us - that'd be worth watching.

[K]

Before R4...

sb To Make the Top 8

Melbourne 1.02
Brisbane 1.08
Sydney, Geelong 1.25
Carlton 1.33
WB 1.40
Richmond 2.00
GWS 2.25
St K 2.37
Port 2.40
Fremantle 2.60
Collingwood, Essendon 3.00
Hawthorn 3.25
WC 8.00
GC 10.00
Adelaide 11.00
North 21.00

...................................

sb To Make the Top 4

Melbourne 1.25
Brisbane 1.40
Sydney, Geelong 2.20
Carlton 2.40
WB 2.50
Richmond 5.50
Port, GWS, St K 6.00
Fremantle 7.50
Collingwood, Essendon 10.00
Hawthorn 13.00
WC 26.00
Adelaide 51.00
GC 67.00
North 81.00

[K]

...
At this stage, I think Melbourne and Brisbane are the benchmark clubs.

Melbourne yep... Brissy not so much...

Only 5 rounds gone and Melbourne already in to 2.80 for the flag.

COVID is a possible spoiler...

[K]

Before R6...

sb To Make the Top 8

Melbourne 1.01
Brisbane 1.05
Sydney 1.11
Geelong 1.14
Carlton 1.36
WB 1.57
Fremantle, St K 1.62
Richmond 1.91
Hawthorn 2.88
Collingwood 3.75
GWS 4.00
Essendon, Port 6.00
GC 7.50
Adelaide, WC 8.00
North 51.00

...................................

sb To Make the Top 4

Melbourne 1.11
Brisbane 1.36
Sydney, Geelong 1.91
Carlton 2.80
WB 3.10
St K 3.60
Fremantle 4.00
Richmond 7.00
Hawthorn 12.00
GWS 15.00
Collingwood 17.00
Essendon, Port 26.00
WC, Adelaide, GC 51.00
North 201.00

[K]

Before R7...

sb To Make the Top 8

Melbourne 1.01
Brisbane 1.04
Sydney 1.09
Geelong 1.10
St K 1.36
Fremantle 1.50
Carlton 1.62
WB 1.80
Richmond 2.10
Hawthorn 3.10
Collingwood 3.25
Adelaide 4.75
Port 5.50
Essendon, GWS, GC 8.00
WC 10.00
North 51.00

...................................

sb To Make the Top 4

Melbourne 1.08
Brisbane 1.36
Sydney 1.91
Geelong 2.00
St K 3.00
Fremantle 3.10
WB 3.75
Carlton 4.50
Richmond 9.00
Collingwood 11.00
Hawthorn 15.00
Port 21.00
Adelaide 23.00
GWS, Essendon 41.00
GC, WC 67.00
North 201.00

[K]

Before R8...

sb To Make the Top 8

Melbourne 1.01
Brisbane 1.02
Sydney 1.10
Fremantle 1.18
Geelong 1.23
St K 1.53
Carlton 1.61
WB, Richmond 1.80
Collingwood 3.00
Hawthorn, Port 4.00
GWS 4.90
Adelaide 6.00
Essendon, GC 10.00
WC 34.00
North 81.00

...................................

sb To Make the Top 4

Melbourne 1.07
Brisbane 1.30
Sydney 1.75
Fremantle 1.85
Geelong 2.35
St K, WB 4.00
Carlton 4.50
Richmond 5.00
Collingwood 10.00
Hawthorn, Port 18.00
GWS 34.00
Adelaide 41.00
Essendon, GC 101.00
North, WC 251.00